Arbitration Eligibles: Arizona Diamondbacks

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The Diamondbacks are next in our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series.  Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.

• First time: Ian Kennedy ($4.2MM), Chris Johnson ($2.2MM), Gerardo Parra ($2.1MM)
• Second time: Brad Ziegler ($2.4MM)
• Third time: Matt Albers ($1.7MM)

Ziegler and Albers both posted sub-3.00 ERAs in 2012, aided by strong groundball rates.  Look for both to be retained at reasonable prices.

Johnson, acquired from Houston in July, showed increased power for Arizona in a limited sample and will come into 2013 as the team's likely starter at the hot corner.  Parra was an oft-used fourth outfielder for most of 2012.  A skilled defender, Parra may have an increased role next year if the D'Backs move him or another outfielder.

Kennedy's body of work -- 46 wins, 684 innings, and a 3.76 ERA -- is quite impressive and only a little shy of where Jered Weaver was prior to his first arbitration year.  With so many of the best starting pitchers locked into long-term contracts these days by the time they reach arbitration, our projection model actually has a pretty small sample with which to work.  So, it cranked out $4.6MM for Kennedy, which would be a first-time starting pitcher arbitration record.  In reality, we feel he will come in shy of Weaver, hence the "off-model" $4.2MM projection above.

Regardless, Kennedy is due for a very strong first-year arbitration salary.  It's possible the D'Backs will look to lock him up, saving some money for 2013 in the process.  The standard four-year, $30MM contract we've seen so often has been for pitchers with less than three years of service, whereas Kennedy is well past that point.  Gio Gonzalez's five-year, $42MM contract might be a better target, although it's not a perfect match since Gonzalez was a Super Two.

Assuming all five arbitration eligible Diamondbacks are retained, we're projecting $12.6MM in salary for 2013.

Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts.

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